Tuesday, April 25, 2017

Retail Site Selection

Overview

Trader Joe's is looking to open a new location within Hennepin or Ramsey Counties within Minnesota.  To accomplish this task of figuring out a new location Business Analyst in ArcGIS will be utilized along with customer data that was provided.  Therefore, "blah blah analyst company" was hired to figure out what is going on in the MSP area.  The questions that need to be answered are: What is the Market penetration, where are the ideal customers, ranking three sites, and finally find the optimal store location based on all of the above answers.  Through Business Analyst these questions will be answered and a site selected.

Methods:

There are four main goals to help accomplish this task, these include:

  1. Locate Ideal Customers
  2. Market Penetration Report
  3. Find the Optimal Store Locations/Mean Center of all Consumer
  4. Ranking Sites
The first one to deal with is finding the ideal customers.  This was done using Business Analyst found in ArcGIS.  To do this the Customer Prospecting tool to find regions that have ideal populations and annual income ranges was used.  For the annual income of 60k/yr was used along with a population of less than 65 years of age (Figure 1). 

Figure 1: Ideal Customers map by ranking.  The red  has the most ideal customers, whereas the yellow has the second most ideal customers and the green has the least ideal customers.  
The next step was to solve for the market penetration.  This was also done by using the analysis in Business Analyst to create a market penetration analysis.  This created using zip codes and the customer data that was provided (Figure 2).

Figure 2: Market Penetration data. 
Next, the Optimal store locations/Mean Center of all consumers is created.  This is done through the analysis tool in business analysis using a site analysis.  This is done by choosing the customers layer and having 1 mean center chosen.

Finally, the last step was to geocode three locations that makes sense for a Trader Joe's to move into.  Once these sites are geocoded, the rank markets market analysis can be performed.  This had four variables to go along with it which included 2016 total income, 2016 Median Household Income, Ind: Avg. Spent per Week by HH at Food Stores $150+, and Shopped at grocery store/6 mo: Trader Joe's.  There was also a 1.5 Mile buffer added to each of these (Figure 4). Therfore the best ranking site would be the 3 or dark blue.  
Figure 3: Customers within their area. 


Results

Figure 4: Ranking
 The results that were come up with show that the area in the South Western Region would be an ideal spot to introduce a new Trader Joe's This is located right in Eden Prairie Minnesota where there is going to be a large enough population from the surrounding area making its way to this location due to having a few large cities without a close enough Trader Joe's.  This is also far enough away from the closet Trader Joe's making it not steal customers from the other locations.   Therefore, this location has great demographics for the new store. For these favorable locations it is up to Trader Joe's to come up with which area they could like to expand into along with working with the city to get the best deal they can make.  

Monday, April 3, 2017

Real Estate Analysis

Introduction



Using real estate analysis, our goal is to sell a home that is found within the Third Ward neighborhood of Eau Claire.  This area has prices that extend from $80K to around $700K for the historic homes within the area, therefore determining the fair-house value needs to be accurately based on nearby houses with similar features along with taking into account the house's overall quality.  Simultaneously, the house will need to account for its primary customers to understand the market for this housing option.  


The price is going to be determined based on the following qualities;
  • The location of the house
  • Value of surrounding real estate
  • Features found within the house (# baths / # bedrooms)
  • Recently sold real estate prices


FrontOfHouse.jpg
Figure 1: Front of house
The house being sold is located at 1111 Graham Avenue The amenities of this house are as follows:
  • 4 bedrooms
  • 2.5 baths
  • 1,929 sqft
  • Lot size: 4,356 sqft
  • Single Family
Unique Features:
  • Hardwood Floors
  • Attached Garage
  • Large windows for large amount of light
    Livingroom.png
    Figure 2: Living Room
  • Updated Furnace in 2012
  • Large Living Room














This cozy four bedroom home is located in the Third Ward Neighborhood of Eau Claire, WI (Figure 3).  This house is found an equal distance from the University of Wisconsin - Eau Claire campus and the historic downtown making this house a great location for enjoying parks, downtown shops, and unique restaurants. This home was built a year after World War 2 which finished in 1946 to give this house the beautiful look of the time period giving it American appeal.  This house offers a great location, safety of Eau Claire, and the ability to make house improvements to one's unique style.


Location



QualityofLife.PNG
Table 1
This house is located in one of the historic areas of Eau Claire which has been positioned perfectly between downtown and the university.  It also has an easy access onto the highway about 5 minutes away.  To the east up a larger ridge is more middle-end houses built around the 1960s and 70s, and to the south there is a walking trail that connects a park to the university.  With the larger hill to the east and the main roads cutting a few blocks away this house offers less out-front traffic than other roads within a few blocks, and this house still offers its proximity to downtown while still being a quiet and quaint area.  Some other reasons this location is positive is because there is a high quality of Life located in the City of Eau Claire. By having a 93.9 score of the living index this area is a great place to settle down and buy a home (Table 1).  It is close to two major hospitals, has many hotel rooms for friends and family to come and stay, and if being bought as a property to rent out, it can rent out above the $709 average rental price due to the location of the home.    
Another reason this is a great location is the crime rate within the City of Eau Claire (Table 2). The crime rate within the City is 210/100,000 people which is low for a city of this size making this a safe place to raise a family and another way to add value to the home.
crimerate.PNG
Table 2
Local Housing Market


The Third Ward has some of the oldest houses found in the City of Eau Claire making it historic and beautiful.  Therefore, most of the housing stock in this area is going to be old and outdated, but still competitive for the area. The houses in the Third Ward will be taken care of better due to
Figure 3: Map of Third Ward.
having less student rentals compared to the area to the Northwest, making this neighborhood  more in demand compared to other neighborhoods at a similar price range. Even with having the oldest houses within the area the average number of defects is less than 2 within the third ward region. This can be compared to the student area housing to the Northwest that has many parcels of defects.  Therefore, the homes surrounding 1111 Graham Ave. show that the neighborhood is maintained and keep their high quality homes keeping housing prices consistent with the area (Figure 4).


Figure 4: Number of Defects found within Third Ward in 2010. 
The Third ward can be divided up into a few different categories of people that live in the neighborhood.  It is rentals, single family homes, duplexes, three or more dwelling units and commercial.   With there being few large rental units except for the ones next to Bracket Hill and the elderly living places which are far away enough for there not to be a noise complaint from that area.  


Demographics

Eau Claire has a population of 67,385 according to the 2015 Census. The Dependency Ratio looks at three different cohorts:


P0-14 = Population in the 0-14 age group, also known as the Youth Dependency Ratio (YDR)
P65+ = Population in the 65+ age group, also known as the Elderly Dependency Ratio (EDR)
P15-64 = Population in the 15 to 64 age group


By using the total population data from the U.S. Census the equation can be written out as:
DR = 100 * (P0-14 + P65+) / P15-64 = (10,849 + 8,221) / 48,315 = 0.39 = 39%


Since the dependency ratio is at 39%, it can be concluded that the working age is more prominent in the city of Eau Claire. If a dependency ratio was high, those of working age face a greater burden in supporting the aging population. In this case, the dependents and the retired make up less of the total population than the working class. The largest age cohort, according to Census Data from 2015, is the 20 to 24 years taking up 15.6% of the population in Eau Claire. Eau Claire is considered a college town due to the University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire. However, people ranging in age from 25-54 also take up a large portion of the population. Eau Claire area is also a great area for families even with the University. There is many opportunities to be taken advantage of in the city ranging from entertainment to large corporation such as JAMF software and RCU headquarters.


Future Development and Attractions

Downtown Eau Claire has been known for their special events to bring people to the downtown. Eau Claire continues to find ways to bring entertainment, recreational, and cultural activities to the city. There is a plethora of indoor and outdoor activities such as music, arts, conferences and shows. These attractions include the L.E. Phillips  Memorial Library, State Theater, Children's Museum, and Boys and Girls Club. Future contributions to the city will include a community performing arts center, The Confluence (Figure 5), as well as a new Civic Center and riverfront parks and trails, considering the Chippewa and Eau Claire River adds a natural attraction to the city layout.
Figure 5: Proposed Performing Arts Center


The value of the riverfront will greatly increase when The Confluence is completed. With the combination between The Confluence and the newly finished Lismore Hotel, other investments in the South Barstow District will be created especially in the 200 and 300 block (Figure 6). The plan is to seek out for new and better restaurants, cafes, and bars in the different areas of downtown.
Figure 6: Image showing future projects.


Eau Claire is also known for it’s many green spaces, including Carson Park, Owen Park, the Chippewa River Trail for biking and recreation activities, and most importantly Phoenix Park where Eau Claire’s famous Farmers Market is held. To continue the diversity of Eau Claire’s green spaces, a small park will be placed by City Hall and the Library (Figure 7).
Figure 7: Future park project. 

Suggested Sale Price



To determine the sale price for this home there are some factors that need to be taken into account.  First, the price of nearby houses that have recently sold that are close in square footage and number of rooms/bathrooms.  Also, the quality of the overall home needs to be taken into the equation.  And finally, what the seller wants to get out of the house.  These variables all factor into the final price.  
Table 3:
Some of the houses that have recently sold around the area are referenced in Table 3 to understand the estimated price determined for this property.


Based on these factors,the consensus was to value the house at $143,864. The price was decided based on the value of similar homes in the area as depicted above in Table 3.


Sources:

US Census: https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/index.xhtml